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Yvain comments on 2013 Less Wrong Census/Survey - Less Wrong
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I just realized I forgot a very important question I really want to know the answer to!
"What is your 90% confidence interval for the percent of people you expect to answer 'cooperate' on the prize question?"
I've added this into the survey so that people who take it after this moment can answer. If you've taken the survey already, feel free to record your guess below (if you haven't taken the survey, don't read responses to this comment)
Hmm, I guess I expect more defectors than cooperators, so let's say 8-70
Interesting, I answered with a symmetrical range, but afterwards thought I should have biased it towards there being more cooperators, as I expect that to be more likely.
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Right down the middle: 25-75
I failed at reading comprehension - took it as "the minimum percentage of cooperation you're 90% confident in seeing" and provided one number instead of a range. ^^;;
So... 15-85 is what I meant, and sorry for the garbage answer on the survey.
10 - 65 %
7-80
45 to 95 %
25% to 90%.
Guvegl gb rvtugl-svir creprag. This would have been much narrower if I'd answered at the time of the survey, though; I was more than a little surprised by the responses in the comments.
50% to 85%.
55%-95% cooperate.
However, after having made that guess, I note that I am the most optimistic one here so far and begin to have doubts...
Well, my actual guess is 85%, so it's not a symmetrical split for me. Hopefully I'm not doing confidence intervals wrong..
40-98