wedrifid comments on Amanda Knox: post mortem - Less Wrong

23 Post author: gwern 20 October 2011 04:10PM

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Comment author: wedrifid 21 October 2011 05:32:35PM 0 points [-]

I have made some progress since a year ago on calibrating my estimates of small probabilities, but I absolutely do not think that I would be wrong approximately 1 time in 20 when making predictions to which I assign a probability of 0.95.

My guess would be more that 1 in 20 wrong for a 95% confidence.

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