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gwern comments on Amanda Knox: post mortem - Less Wrong
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I take issue with your Bayes-prayer. I don't mind so much that it seems to be just a normal prayer with some replaced words, rather than being something good in its own right, though I think this would offend other LWers. However, it does violate one message on LW that I've found very important to internalize:
So, apparently, we're really really bad at bayescraft. What are we going to do about it?
If there's anyone here who has made more suggestions than me and tried harder than me on calibrating one's predictions, I would appreciate an introduction so I can pick their brain.
I'm saying it deserves mention within the prayer, to remind the reciter that it's not enough to confess one's flaws without also forming a plan to obliterate them.