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Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on Amanda Knox: post mortem - Less Wrong
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See my added comment. I did not assign a probability of 15%. I said that if you assigned a probability higher than 15%, it meant you had a really major problem with crediting the opinions of other people and the authority of idiots. My probability that Knox and Sollecito were guilty was "that's privileging the hypothesis", i.e., "I see no real evidence in its favor so same as prior probability", i.e., "really damned' low".
When people gave ranges, I just used the anchoring number. You gave a range starting at 15%, so that's what I listed.
That's a neat compact algorithm but this doesn't change the fact that it produces the wrong answer.
Again, 15% isn't the maximum of a range. It's a number that's not just "wrong" but "sufficiently wrong to imply you need to adjust your emotional makeup".
If you need a number for me, put in "<0.01". I wouldn't have bet $20,000 at 99-to-1 odds over it at the time of writing that first paragraph, but I'm not quite sure anymore that this really means my probability is >0.01, it's not like I'd have taken the bet the other way.