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gwern comments on Amanda Knox: post mortem - Less Wrong
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When people gave ranges, I just used the anchoring number. You gave a range starting at 15%, so that's what I listed.
That's a neat compact algorithm but this doesn't change the fact that it produces the wrong answer.
Again, 15% isn't the maximum of a range. It's a number that's not just "wrong" but "sufficiently wrong to imply you need to adjust your emotional makeup".
If you need a number for me, put in "<0.01". I wouldn't have bet $20,000 at 99-to-1 odds over it at the time of writing that first paragraph, but I'm not quite sure anymore that this really means my probability is >0.01, it's not like I'd have taken the bet the other way.