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wedrifid comments on Amanda Knox: post mortem - Less Wrong
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Comments (483)
And here we have a case study on what not to do and why.
If you want to make an argument for why I should put more weight on other posters' opinions about Knox and Sollecito, I'm happy to consider it.
I'm afraid this is a lesson for others to learn by observation and not one which you can learn yourself (without changing your mind). The reasoning goes along the lines:
Note that this is both an somewhat opposing but also complimentary lesson to the one Eliezer notes.
I vaguely recall that you got pretty annoyed at me a year or so ago when I pointed out a contradiction in your reasoning. I suspect that your anger at me over that incident is informing your commentary.
But anyway, if there really are any lurkers reading this, feel free to look back at the actual arguments I made concerning Knox and draw whatever you conclusion you like. Also pay specific attention to my exchange with wedrifid.
I've had no interaction with you on this site at all, but I have read your posts on the previous Amanda Knox threads, and while I believe I have a far greater aversion than wedrifid to making statements so likely to antagonize others, I have to say I find your judgment in this case in conjunction with your position as a lawyer downright frightening.
Well what exactly frightens you? I'm not a judge.
Judges are mostly selected from among lawyers, so that would be a lot more comforting if I were confident that the selection process were a genuinely good filter for people of exceptional judgment. But I would have a lot more trust in our justice system if I thought that lawyers tended to be people who would not readily become convinced of and argue strongly for positions in the absence of good reasons for believing them true.
At least in the United States, judges are mostly selected from among prosecutors. Defense attorneys, including public defenders, aren't very well represented on the bench. General judgment aside, this a serious systemic bias of the system.
What mechanism makes it a problem? I can see why it would perhaps be most fair for an individual to have one of a former prosecutor and former public defender presiding over the individual's original trial and appeal. The more judges make binding rules for the system, rather than in their courtroom, the more of a problem this would be (though I am under the impression this is not the case).
But why are individual differences in judicial bias OK?
I see it as a problem in the sense that prosecutors and defenders are conditioned to view the judicial process in somewhat different ways, and I don't think that judges can simply wave away years of conditioning to see things from a prosecutorial point of view.
Individual bias isn't great either, but at least there the bias isn't necessarily going to be in the same direction at each step of the process. The fact that the trial judge and all the appeals court judges are all likely to be former prosecutors, on the other hand, cuts the same direction at every step.
Only mostly? I had assumed it was an actual legal requirement. That's interesting. Where you come from how many judges have ever not been lawyers and how on earth do they know what they are doing?
EDIT: From the looks of it some (40) states in the US allow non-lawyers to be low level judges, usually for small towns doing straightforward cases. From what I can tell in Australia (and most comparable countries) a law qualification of some sort is required.
I don't know if there are any, but given the sheer number of judges, I would suspect that there have been judges who have never served as lawyers; there is no requirement that a federal judge have ever served as an attorney, and requirements for state judgeship vary by jurisdiction.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics states that a bachelor's degree and work experience are the minimum requirements for judgeship or a magistrate position, but most workers have law degrees, so I'd take it as implied that some do not, and are thus exceedingly unlikely to have been lawyers.
It's rare now, but used to be common, for prospective lawyers to pursue an apprenticeship rather than a law degree. You can still use either as a qualification to take the bar exam.
That depends on the jurisdiction, and also on how exactly you define "lawyer." (Do you mean someone with a law degree, or a member of the local bar association or some equivalent guild? The former is usually, but not quite always, a requirement for the latter.)
If anything, in many state and local jurisdictions within the U.S., judges are elected by popular vote, and I would guess that in some of those there are no such requirements for candidates, at least in theory.
Interestingly, for a U.S. Supreme Court appointment, a law degree from a top 14 law school (and at least one academic degree from Harvard or Yale) has been a de facto requirement for decades, but as recently as the 1930s and 1940s, there have been occasional SCOTUS justices appointed without a law degree at all.
Apparently the last United States Supreme Court Justice without a law qualification was Robert H. Jackson - although he passed the bar exam without official training and was a prominent practicing lawyer. I haven't found the last time someone was appointed to that role without passing the bar but research so far does seem to suggest it is an entirely political position, without qualifications required.
It actually isn't a requirement for Supreme Court justices -- I'm not sure about other cases.
I see your point, but I suspect the problem is more in your own judgment than in mine. Consider that I have had the experience of being wrong on these sorts of issues -- and having to face it -- many many times.
In this case, knowing that you persist in your assignment of a high likelihood of guilt for Knox and Sollecito given the data that's now available to you, I feel confident in saying that your ability to say oops is too poor.
After the advent of DNA testing, retrospective analysis of many crimes exonerated people who had previously been convicted. Had this case occurred before DNA testing was available, Knox and Sollecito would most likely have been convicted, but a DNA test should have been sufficient to exonerate them.
FWIW that assessment happens to be incorrect. I say "oops" regularly. And even in my professional life where there is a lot of money at stake, I occasionally have to withdraw a case and apologize. Or ask for leave to amend a paper.
Exactly what DNA evidence do you believe exonerates them? I am not aware of any, but I am happy to consider it in good faith. And yes, revise my probability estimates accordingly.
My understanding is that some doubt has been cast on the DNA evidence against the two. Which isn't the same thing as being exonerated. But I really would like to hear about such evidence.
Wedrifid is just like that. All the time.
Ok, then perhaps my suspicions are unwarranted.
I don't recall any conversations with you. (Mind you I expect I would have if I believed you then. Actually being wrong is embarrassing.)
No, from the premise "brazil84 is blatantly and obviously wrong despite paying attention to the topic" "don't do what brazil84 did" is a reasonably good inference to make. But as I noted you don't share that premise so naturally you should not be expected to believe it. This is why you were not the intended audience.
Usually, it depends.
Oh, true. For example your correction here gives somewhat less than 0 embarrassment points. Let me clarify that to "In cases where someone is attempting to criticize me regarding a substantial assertion I have made in a manner that makes the situation highly status relevant actually being wrong is embarrassing".
I'm pretty sure we had a lengthy exchange. But I suppose I will give you the benefit of the doubt and assume that your public claim -- in essence -- that my conclusions are insane was purely from the desire to help other posters and not in any way related to our history.
ETA: I just was looking back and I realized that I do not engage with you anymore. I had forgotten about that. Anyway, bye again.
Are you referring to the 'exchange' that starts around here and continues from there? If so... I'm not so sure bringing this to people's attention is in your best interests.
No, I was referring to the exchange in the earlier Knox thread.
For me, this is not a competition to see how many people I can win over or how many karma points I can accumulate.
If it's this you're referring to, I have to wonder how you got from there to "I suspect that your anger at me over that incident is informing your commentary". That seems like blowing it way out of proportion.
Ok, I think I found it:
http://lesswrong.com/lw/1j7/the_amanda_knox_test_how_an_hour_on_the_internet/1c6t?context=9#comments
And here's an exchange between me and him which got pretty personal:
http://lesswrong.com/lw/1ph/youre_entitled_to_arguments_but_not_that/1njx?context=1#1njx
He's apparently deleted some of his comments, but I wouldn't have asked him to stop making things personal if he hadn't done so.
Here's one thing which he said (and later deleted, it seems):
Clearly he and I have some history here, to put it politely.
Anyway, was reading over the thread and now I remember I banned the guy.
Yes, that's the third link I suggested.
And that was the first.
Dude, that was in the post you linked directly to.
Ok, so you can see that he and I have a history here. It seems pretty likely to me that his most recent comments were motivated by personal animus. Feel free to draw your own conclusions.
No, that wasn't it either.
...Maybe this one? (That's the one that ends in you saying "Lol, that's nonsense.")
Side note: I'm not sure whether to be amazed, impressed or disturbed at how many arguments you've had with wedrifid. This whole line of conversation is veering into the farcical.
Well the bottom line is that he and I have a history here, a lot more than I realized a few minutes ago. And now he seems to be claiming he doesn't remember our exchanges; it's apparently just a coincidence that he needs to publicly announce -- in essence -- I've reached conclusions which are insane.