brazil84 comments on Amanda Knox: post mortem - Less Wrong

23 Post author: gwern 20 October 2011 04:10PM

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Comment author: brazil84 21 October 2011 10:47:19AM 0 points [-]

Which is a very tenuous basis on which to put yourself in a separate reference class.

Well let me ask you this: roughly speaking how much weight do you give to the unsupported assertion of an anonymous person on the internet versus your own conclusions of which you are reasonably confident in an area where you are reasonably confident of your skill and experience?

Comment author: Desrtopa 21 October 2011 02:39:11PM 2 points [-]

Depends on where the anonymous internet people are selected from. From Youtube comments? Very little. From here? Quite a lot more.

If I knew that it were something that the people here had put a lot of thought into, and that nearly everybody here thought that I was completely wrong, I would need tremendous prior certainty not to be reduced below .5.

Comment author: brazil84 21 October 2011 03:13:06PM 0 points [-]

If I knew that it were something that the people here had put a lot of thought into, and that nearly everybody here thought that I was completely wrong, I would need tremendous prior certainty not to be reduced below .5.

Even if the dispute were in an area where you believed you had unusual expertise?

Comment author: Desrtopa 21 October 2011 03:18:32PM 4 points [-]

If the other members were aware of my assessment of my expertise and reasons for assigning it, and were not moved from high confidence that I was wrong, then yes. I would need very strong confidence in my having unique qualifications to not mostly discount on the basis of their discounting.

Comment author: Jack 21 October 2011 03:24:55PM 2 points [-]

If the other members were aware of my assessment of my expertise and reasons for assigning it, and were not moved from high confidence that I was wrong, then yes.

Quoted so it won't get missed. This is a really important point.

Comment author: brazil84 23 October 2011 10:32:21AM 0 points [-]

I think the difference is that you have a lot of respect for posters here as a group. I do not.