I'm not sure I understand your point. My belief that I have superior judgment in this area is based on actual knowledge about myself and my experiences.

But not knowledge of the other commenters and their experiences, whom you seem to have lumped into the reference class of "anonymous internet commenters," which you assign a low assessment of competence.

If you want to find a lot of people with significant expertise in rendering judgment under uncertainty, I think this is a pretty good place to look.