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steven0461 comments on Amanda Knox: post mortem - Less Wrong
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Yes, that's what I meant by what I said. But the problem is that, at least to me, the premise is no more obvious than the conclusion.
I see. It's a little more obvious to spell out "more than 1 out of 10 innocent" instead of "only 87% probablity of guilt" but if you see them as immediately equivalent then indeed the argument will do nothing for you.