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JoshuaZ comments on Amanda Knox: post mortem - Less Wrong
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Oh. Hmm. I don't remember where I saw this but that number is my background fact set. But when I look at the actual numbers this is clearly false. There have been around 30,000 people wounded or killed. (Source) and around a million who have served. That means that the probability of being wounded or killed at all is around .03, which is much smaller, and that's even before the fact that I said wounded severely enough that one can't keep fighting. Also in retrospect my number was obviously too high. Severe failure of rationality on my part. Ugh.
I thought that number was highly suspicious, but I attributed it to the combined category (killed or too injured to return -- which of course are very different things from the perspective of the individual concerned!).